When to rely on a forecast or not….

As I write this the sun is shining brightly and the cold damp unseasonal (?) weather we have been experiencing is suddenly a distant memory. OK the stock market is down (again), retail sales are down (again) and Greece continues to teeter on the brink (again). However there is something about a change for the better in the weather that seems to make the world, however fleetingly, a much better place.

Of course businesses are extremely adept at using the weather to excuse any number of calamities. Too much summer, too little summer, badly timed summer (seriously), all are often used to explain away unexpected poor performance. Interestingly weather is very rarely given the credit for good things that happen in business. These naturally are down to the leadership and wisdom of the management team.

Anybody who has ever organised an outdoor event, however humble, knows how it feels to look skywards when the day in question dawns and offer a suitable prayer for reasonable weather. However meticulously you plan the thing, its success or failure is often down to the one thing that is never within your control. All you can do it take precautions to mitigate any downside.

Indeed the only predictable thing about the British weather is it unpredictability. I am sure that the Met Office will be able to provide ample statistics that show that it is right more often than wrong but weather forecasts are only ever just that – forecasts.

The same goes for business planning and forecasting. The chances are you will never get it totally right, but you can stack the odds in your favour by understanding your key profit and cash drivers and modelling a number of scenarios that impact on them. This will help you to assess and manage your risk so that even if it does “rain on your parade” at the very least you already know where you have put your business umbrella.

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Gratuitous name dropping alert (part two). I had lunch last week with a Swiss Federal Councillor, Johann Schneider-Ammann. For those of you who are not up to date with the Swiss political system, the seven member Federal Council effectively acts as the Swiss head of state.

Each councillor is responsible for a number of key portfolios within their departments, unlike our Cabinet Members who by and large only have one. As Mr Schneider-Ammann, whose brief is economic affairs, noted following the recent elections in France, he had to send congratulatory letters to all seven of his new French counterparts! Clearly a good example perhaps of Swiss efficiency…..

Flaunt the imperfection….

Last weekend I took part in a race to the summit of the Jungfrau, one of the highest mountains in the Swiss Alps. In the weeks before I had to field numerous questions such as how my training was going, what sort of equipment would I be using and would I be attempting Everest next?

Of course most people who know me would have immediately spotted the flaw in all of this. I have enough problems climbing a ladder let alone a mountain. The race was actually organised by Skywork Airlines and the British Swiss Chamber of Commerce to publicise Skywork’s new daily service between London City Airport and the Swiss capital, Berne. Reaching the top was achieved by using public transport, the Jungfraujoch station being the highest railway station in Europe. Simple when you know how.

But it is easy to see how people could gain the impression that I was seasoned adventurer just from the words “race” and “summit” and just as easy to understand why I might have been tempted not to disabuse people of the notion. We all like to create an impression of being something that we are not quite.

I am often reminded of this desire when I speak with entrepreneurs and small business owners. When preparing business plans, marketing copy and websites, there is a tendency to overegg the product or service, creating the impression of a bigger organisation than actually exists.

The problem with this approach is often that it creates a risk of over promising and under delivering, a cardinal sin for anybody trying to make the right impression with a new customer. It is the business equivalent of "slightly embellishing" career achievements on a CV.

Of course a lot of this is driven by the perceived need to be perfect and the fear that we won’t measure up to somebody’s ideal. In a world of multiple ‘A’ stars anything less is seen as unacceptable. The world now demands perfection more and more, even though it is seldom, if ever, possible to achieve it. The reality that most things are imperfect and none the worse for it is hard to sell.

I must emphasise that this is not about accepting second best. We all have a responsibility to our customers and our clients to be as good as we can possibly be. It is about realising that it is only through being honest with ourselves and understanding what we are not that we can really start to work on what we would like to be. As those 80s whimsical pop rockers China Crisis might have said perhaps it is time to “flaunt the imperfection”.

I am more than happy to admit that I never have been and am highly unlikely to be a mountaineer. Having said that I am of course open to future invitations to race to the summit of Everest. They’ll have to ensure there is a train to take me to the top though……

Opening the Chamber of opportunities….

I am writing this from a meeting room overlooking the lake of Zürich. Last night I enjoyed an aperitif from a 5^th floor restaurant overlooking this picturesque Swiss city, enjoying some splendid views before listening to a quality speech from former EU trade commissioner Lord Brittan, somebody who clearly knows what he is talking about when it comes to international business. It’s a tough life.

It actually could have been a really tough life. Trying something new is always a leap of faith. It involves an element of risk and moving out of your comfort zone. Without forethought and planning it may be a disaster. Even with planning and help there is no certainty of success. For me, as a naturally cautious accountant, trying to promote our outsourced CFO offering in a new market was potentially a daunting task.

Fortunately I had some excellent help from the British Swiss Chamber of Commerce (BSCC) and the team based in Zürich. Aside from organising a great event, they furnished me with contacts and introductions, and allowed me to use their office to work in when I had some spare time. Their encouragement to visit Zürich for the AGM, at which Lord Brittan was the keynote speaker, was a real spur to get me to move my Swiss project forward.

The whole experience brought to mind another recent meeting at Canary Wharf (again with panoramic view – if I was a photographer this would be a great job) as part of my involvement in the London Local Chambers initiative. This is aimed at publicising the existence of the 20 plus locally based chambers of commerce within greater London, chambers that have a real feel for local business opportunities, and which offer good local contacts as well as engagement with local government on business issues. 

People often see chambers of commerce as networking organisations, there purely to provide sales opportunities. However their real value is more than being a good way of building contacts and relationships that may develop into opportunities in the future. They can also provide an opportunity to contribute to a wider movement dedicated to increasing business and trading opportunities for everybody, particularly on the international side. This mixture of international and local knowledge and presence is a major reason why well run chambers continue to be the first port of call for organisations looking to develop new markets.

Was it worth the visit? Ah that would be telling, but there is a clue in the fact that I am really glad that I took the opportunity of visiting Switzerland for the BSCC AGM. You have to take a chance if you want to develop something new. However moving out of your comfort zone does not mean you have to take silly risks. There is a lot of help available and existing networks to work with. These are clearly no guarantee of success, but they make it a lot more fun trying, and who knows where it will lead to one day.

All the world is a stage….

What a week! So far that is, as it is yet to finish. Loads of appointments and meetings. Arranging a trip to Switzerland. Last week of rehearsals before stepping on stage in front of an expectant paying audience. Oh and keeping clients happy and serviced as well.

Whether employees or freelancers we all get weeks where it seems there just aren’t enough hours available to do everything. In the end there are of course, although sleep is never quite given the priority that the body says that it should be.

The acting is a great release. This time I am playing a Victorian German Anarchist, as you do, and, as you can imagine, it has all been a lot of fun. Our audiences enjoy it too, and their appreciation is one of the reasons that I am so addicted to amateur dramatics. Of course I always remind myself that I am only as good as the next performance I give in order to keep my feet on the ground. Can’t have accountants getting ideas above their station….

Putting together the Swiss trip to promote our inward investor offering has also been enjoyable. I have been working with the British Swiss Chamber of Commerce  which has been very helpful in providing me with contacts for potential meetings.

Organising the flight has been a particular eye opener though. “Things ain’t what they used to be” is a common refrain from those old enough to actually remember how it used to be, and the airline industry is certainly an industry where nostalgia for a so called golden age can still bring a tear to the eye.

However the make up of the ticket price has astounded me, particularly as I am using some leftover airmiles to make the trip. After adding in taxes and surcharges my “free” flight is costing nearly £100. Indeed since it became a commodity product, for many people flying has been a pain. Add in the “enhanced” security set up that now exists and you can see why it isn’t only finance directors who echo that wartime staple “Is your journey really necessary?” 

Much like regular commuting though, frequent flyers learn to cope. You have your own rituals that start with your journey to the airport, through check-in (if you have to), security, café/business lounge (delete where applicable), getting on the plane, enduring the flight, getting off the plane, dealing with passport control and coming out at the other end. In short you just get out there and do it.

Closer to home it is great to see that in spite of the conflicting economic data there are so many business people out there working hard to promote their businesses. Whether it is through the efforts of the various Chambers of Commerce, or other business networking events, being seen matters. That is one of the reasons I am going out to Switzerland. Face to face meetings remain essential if you are to develop the right level of trust for future business relationships.

All the world is a stage and maybe we are all merely players. It can be tempting to see many of our activities as a chore. However we need to remember that we are so lucky to have the opportunities that we do and that we need to make the most of them and enjoy them as much as we can. Even if it makes sleep an optional extra…..