Merry Christmas Everyone….?

It is difficult to know in which sort of mood one should approach the coming festive season. On the one hand there is the inherent optimism that every entrepreneur lives by. On the other end there is the endless stream of economic statistics that leave us none the wiser as to whether we are finally on the road to recovery or facing the prospect of a triple dip recession.

Whatever mood you are in it surely cannot be enhanced by the behaviour of our elected representatives who on the one hand indignantly lambast greedy multinationals for applying laws that the MPs themselves have drafted and approved (although clearly not understood) whilst simultaneously hiring a lawyer to fight for the right to apply the letter of the dubious rules regarding their expenses and the profits made on their taxpayer financed second homes.

Clearly they have no idea of the further contempt that they are likely to be held in as their obvious self-interest is contrasted with the exhortation that we are all in this together.

The shenanigans surrounding MPs and big business seem a world away from the day to day struggles of those of us who work within enterprise Britain. And yet we need them both to wake up and realise that they have to get their combined acts together to keep the economy moving forward in a more sustainable way.

We need big business to play fair with their taxes and their wallets, using their cash piles to stimulate investment and pay their smaller suppliers on time. We need politicians to use their powers positively to deal with unnecessary regulation to help us deliver the growth that we know we can with the right support.

Wishful thinking? Maybe but it is the season of goodwill and goodwill is probably what the economy needs most right now.

Anyway I have decided to remain cheerful and am determined to have a good Christmas. 2013 will no doubt still provide lots of opportunities to those willing to go out there and grab them. To everybody out there, thank you for reading my thoughts this year and have a very merry Christmas and a happy, healthy and prosperous new year.

Christmas Cheer…?

We have a tradition in our household that Christmas doesn’t get mentioned until 22^nd November. That means that we can focus on our youngest daughter’s birthday the day before without any distraction. So no talk of present lists for Santa, no Christmas songs, no writing of Christmas cards, nothing. We might make an exception for mince pies though….

Clearly this is not an approach that is going to appeal to retailers out there. Given the current economic uncertainty, the recent downbeat forecast from the Bank of England and the ever present fear of a triple dip recession, they are no doubt desperate for Christmas shopping to start as early as possible so that they can reap the benefits of the sustained burst of consumer spending that normally takes place at this time of year. 

And yet in spite of the gloom that persists I think there are some positives around that should make retailers and other businesses feel slightly more confident than maybe they have done for a while. Not least it is worth recalling that it was only a month or so ago the third quarter growth figures (which have recently been confirmed) showed a significant one per cent increase in GDP.

So what other grounds for optimism are there? Employment levels have remained stable over the past few years in spite of everything. The private sector seems to be picking up the slack as the public sector contracts, which itself does not appear to be happening as quickly as had been feared. The gap between price inflation and pay rises has been narrowing. Interest rates remain at record low levels and are unlikely to move upwards until well into next year at the earliest which means mortgage payments remain manageable. All of these factors will hopefully provide a fillip to consumer activity.

Even the failure of a major retailer such as Comet will have knock on benefits for other similar retailers. Equally good businesses who have been investing in their staff and products, which in the case of retailers means investing in their stores, will be creating the right environment for attracting customers.

And above all as Noddy Holder’s pension fund “Merry Christmas Everybody” will no doubt be bellowing out in shops everywhere “It’s Christmaaaasss!”. Whatever doubts they have about the economic situation people always find a reason to spend in the run up to the festive season. Even if they do wait until 22^nd November to start doing so…..