Let’s do lunch…..

Last week I had lunch at the Bank of England. I’ll just let that one sink in a moment. Actually it was the day that the Monetary Policy Committee decided on a second round of quantitative easing, although I can’t claim to have influenced the decision even though I visited the room in which they made it. The committee of course were long gone by then, and all efforts to get an inside line on their discussion by looking for indentations on the notepaper left behind were in vain…..

OK, a moment to show off perhaps, but like most things I do it was an opportunity to share knowledge and find out what is really happening in the world of Enterprise Britain. The reason for my lunch was a meeting with Peter Andrews, Greater London Agent for the Bank of England, alongside other members of the London Local Chambers Forum. The Bank uses agents like Peter throughout the UK to gather anecdotal evidence to add to the swathe of numerical and statistical data used to monitor the economy.

As you can imagine, when a dozen or so businessmen committed to success get together in a room strong views and opinions fly out at a rate of knots. Regulation, planning, support for construction, infrastructure and education all came under the spotlight. Unsurprisingly the banks got a bashing for their continuing reluctance to provide the finance required by SMEs in the current climate. There was some concern about inflation and its potential impact on pay settlements which to date have been subdued as employees focused on keeping their jobs.     

One of our number asserted that what was happening was more of a restructuring rather than a recession based on a shifting of the economic balance of power from west to east, and that solutions needed to be in place to address this fundamental issue above all else.

As the penultimate contributor I noted that little attention was paid to the level of underemployment in the labour market, particularly amongst older professionals who have become freelancers as a result of being made redundant, which was a tremendous waste of talent. I also made the point that it would be nice if the large corporates who are apparently hoarding £60billion in cash at present could use some of this to pay their smaller suppliers on time. The impact of this on SME working capital would be significant, more I would venture to suggest that any increase in the availability of bank finance.

Throughout all this, the man from the Bank of England took copious notes, smiled, empathised, made fleeting comments, sought clarifications and picked up on points that were consistent with what he was hearing from other sources.

Hopefully what he heard from us will make it back to those with the power to deal with the macro economic issues that appear to be putting recovery at risk. For many people 2011 was shaping up to be a good year until the economic situation started to deteriorate during the summer.

In spite of all the gloom it is clear that companies large and small are getting on with life and trying to grow their businesses. It would be a shame if all these efforts went to waste because the policymakers were unable to do their job. We are playing our part. One hopes they realise this in London, Washington, Brussels, Frankfurt…….

Inflated influence….

I had my annual rail fare shock recently when I took my first trip into central London of the year. As I no longer require a season ticket, I am at the mercy of the various peak and off peak fares that my local operator charges. Once again the fare increase was noticeable and comfortably above what is laughingly known as the headline inflation rate.

Inflation is certainly back in various guises. There is currently the CPI rate that is almost twice the level  which the Bank of England is meant to target. Petrol, utility and transport costs seem to have a life of their own. Global commodity prices are soaring. China is no longer the cheap production centre it used to be. And to cap it all VAT has just gone up.

With incomes stagnating for many people we should probably be feeling a lot poorer. Indeed the Governor of the Bank of England seems to think that this is a good thing. Hence the renewed fears of a double dip recession following the release of this week’s GDP figures which showed an apparently surprising decline in the last quarter of last year.

Back in the seventies, prices went up 20% and so did wages. It was an unwritten law of the UK economy at that time. Nowadays prices are going up and wages are not, a reversal of the so called new economic paradigm of the previous decade. 

Some price increases are obvious and immediate such a train fares and petrol. Some are not. Many retailers have not passed the increase on as yet, probably because they snuck most of their increases in before Christmas and then have disguised the rest by imaginatively spreading them across their product portfolio and using promotions to disguise overall increases.

So are things really that bad? And what should clever businesses be doing about it regardless? Managing during this “phoney war” period of inflation is challenging, particularly as we now live in a flexible global economy where there are a myriad of influences affecting prices and wages.

However switched on businesses can look closely at all their costs and all their products. They should be able work out where they can increase prices, do deals with suppliers and keep their key staff happy. At times like this businesses really do need a good understanding of their finances so that they can model and manage their income and costs.

Of course the real threat to the economy remains interest rate increases. Price increases can be managed to a certain degree. I suspect higher interest rates will be much harder to do so.  

Antony on the road (2)

Tuesday 18 Nov 09 - Breakfast courtesy of the Thames Valley Economic Partnership (http://www.businessinberkshire.co.uk/tvep/index.html) where the keynote speakers were John Whitely, the Bank of England’s agent for central and southern England, and Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways.John Whitely gave a very downbeat assessment of the current situation, backed up a formidable array of alarming looking graphs, and concluded that there was a “very high degree of uncertainty in unprecedented times”.Willie Walsh was Willie Walsh and said exactly what you would expect him to say (http://www.thamesvalley.co.uk/public_panel/economic_outlook.php)regarding BA’s response to the economic downturn and the requirement for a third runway at Heathrow.Fair play then to the guy from Imago (http://www.imagogroupplc.com/3D%20Telepresence/3DTelePresence.htm), a business that provide 3D telepresence facilities who stood up and proudly pointed out that they were over 100% ahead of their budget in the first few months of their business year. Clearly a SMART business and a good riposte to all the gloom and doom that had otherwise prevailed during the morning.